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Rs 4.5 lakh cr wiped out in a week, how to safeguard portfolio

Saturday, September 5, 2015, 11:45
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NEW DELHI: Global rout in equities pushed the S&P BSE Sensex lower by 4.5 per cent for the week ended September 4, while Nifty plunged 4.3 per cent to post its worst weekly loss since November 2011. Equity investors’ wealth, measured in terms of total market capitalisation of all listed companies on the BSE, declined to Rs 93,85,043 crore, registering a loss of Rs 4,59,647 crore during a week. Total market capitalisation stood at Rs 98,44,690.63 crore last weekend. On Friday, the S&P BSE Sensex closed 562.88 points, or 2.1 per cent, lower at 25,201.90. The index hit a fresh 52-week low of 25,119.06 in intra-day trade. The 50-share Nifty index slipped below its crucial psychological support of 7,700 to end the day at 7,655.05, down 167.95 points or 2.15 per cent. It recorded a fresh 52-week low of 7,626.85 during the day. Most market experts agree that apart from the lingering concerns over the economic slowdown in China, fears of a rate hike by the US Federal Reserve is worrying investors across the globe. “The current fall is largely on account of expectation of a rate hike by the Fed, which is finally getting ready to bite the bullet,” Prakash Diwan, Director, Altamount Capital Management told ET Now in an interview. “It is risk-off behaviour that we are seeing across emerging markets. The Chinese market has been closed for the past few days, and we will see no impact of the yuan depreciation,” he added. Diwan said it was purely on account of the Fed rate hike that the market was behaving in a little bit of a jittery way. What should investors do at a time where volatility is high and the benchmark indices have touched their fresh 52-week lows. “Well, no doubt the current volatility spells tough days for traders, but for investors, it is a great opportunity to invest for the long term, not less than two years,” he said. Investors should keep the cash by their side, and allow things to settle down and then try and realign their portfolios if required, say experts. “Your portfolio needs to readjust to the emerging situation. The view that global investors have is that you got to reorient the fact that the government’s economic policy has by and large failed,” Ajay Srivastava, CEO, Dimensions Consulting, told ET Now in an interview. Here is a checklist Srivastava recommends to investors for stock picking: A) Look for companies which have strong MNC parentage B) Understand the balance sheet of the company. Does the company have a will to raise money or have enough cash on the bank, which can be a positive in their books? C) What is the positioning of the company in the industry? Is there a problem with it vis-a-vis the rest of the market or global positioning ? D) Is the company dependent on government policies or an economic revival? If yes, it is a cross. We have collated a list of sectors which are looking good amid the current market meltdown: Prakash Diwan, Director, Altamount Capital Management FMCG and pharma clearly seemed to be emerging as islands of solace of sorts, because if you look at the kind of interest that some of the MNCs like Henkel and all have shown and the way they are coming back to the market by buying into Jyothy Lab is an indicator of the sectoral potential. MNCs are looking at the Indian market to put in money, and if capital were to come in at these levels, and in this particular environment, it is very clearly going to be to a sector or a company that is going to be shored up well. Ajay Srivastava, CEO, Dimensions Consulting The financial sector looks overpriced to me, and we need to wait and see if it corrects before you can get in. Apart from that, engineering, auto, pharma and IT and consumer goods look reasonably safe bets. Pharma and IT sectors are among the safe bets. As far as consumer discretionary is concerned, there is no competition. There, you will find safe haven. One may find safe haven in MNCs as well. We are not advising investors to put all the cash aside, but buy into those sectors. Vinay Khattar, Senior Vice President & Head of Research, Edelweiss Financial Services If you were to look at the long-term story in the pharma sector, it is very well intact. Indian companies continue to penetrate US and European markets, see far more success in the US generic space and even the domestic story is playing out very well of late. The Modi government is talking about increased spending on health care and eventually the domestic market could also provide a juicy opportunity. But as you have mentioned, the big opportunities in the US and companies that have focused in the US have done very well. One sector that looks very exciting in the entire BFSI space is home finance. Repco and Gruh have been very focused on rural India or tier II-tier III cities and these companies have seen very good growth. The smaller ones have grown 25-30 per cent CAGR over the past few years and, hopefully, this growth is going to continue. With the government is pushing the smart city proposal, these stocks can present great value even from this stage. Though they trade at higher multiples, one would have to just hold them for a longer period. But in terms of structural growth stories, these could be very good ideas to own. Nitin Jain, Global Assets Let’s look at the NBFCs that are giving you great risk-return ratios. They are trading at 1.5 to 2 times price-to-book, giving you 20 per cent plus ROEs. HDFC Bank is trading at around 18-19 times, which is probably at the lower end of the band for a very long time. ‘ Avinnash Gorakssakar, CIO and Head Research, Precision Investment Services Within the pharma pack, I would be comfortable with Sun Pharma. Markets have discounted FY16 because after the integration with Ranbaxy, the management has already given a commentary that FY16 may not be that good, but if you look at FY17, the geographies and the product bouquet that Sun Pharma gets by integrating Ranbaxy could obviously lead to a very large improvement on its Ebitda, a 25-30 per cent kind of growth on the consolidated number cannot be ruled out. So, Sun Pharma could probably be bought and the target price one could look at over the next 12-15 months could be around Rs 1,100-1,150. From the IT space, I would like to bet on stocks like TCS and Infosys. Clearly, in very challenging times, these companies have done well. Infosys has already gone through a very bad patch to report good numbers over the last two quarters. At this level, Infosys offers a good risk-reward ratio for a target price of around Rs 1,250-Rs 1,300. TCS definitely looks good. If you look at the longer-term picture, around Rs 2,700-2,800 could be the target price. (Views and recommendations given in this section are the analysts’ own and do not represent those of EconomicTimes.com. Please consult your financial adviser before taking any position in the stock/s mentioned.)      

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