Tuesday, December 24, 2024

Sensex logs best post-Budget week in 10 years: Can you see the bulls?

Friday, March 4, 2016, 10:48
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NEW DELHI: The S&P BSE Sensex has managed to log its best week post a Budget in more than 10 years. The 30-share index of India’s blue chip stocks logged an impressive 1,646-point rally since Monday. The market continued its winning streak, giving positive returns in the first week after the Union Budget for the third consecutive year. This week’s tally surpasses the previous best of 1,492 points weekly gain after Union Budget 2011 (See Chart). Finance Minister Arun Jaitley on Monday presented his third Budget to the nation , which was seen by experts as a balanced one. Crucially, the Finance Minister was able to maintain his fiscal deficit targets for the current and the forthcoming financial years within targets, sending out a positive message to foreign investors and fuelling a rally in stocks. “I think in the runup to the budget, the market was anticipating some negative developments, so there has been a sense of relief after the budget, which looked more realistic,” said Hemang Jani, Senior VP, Sharekhan. “So, the sense is that what we are getting is a bit of relief rally,” he said. Although the Sensex hit its fresh 52-week low during the FM’s Budget speech, plunging as much as 630 points, but it recovered quickly to end the day just 160 points lower. By Tuesday, the bulls were set free on the Dalal Street, as the BSE benchmark went on a winning streak, that’s yet to be curtailed with FIIs themselves leading the charge. The FIIs have been net buyers to the tune of Rs 4,725 crore in the past three sessions after the Budget, buoyed by the FM’s stance to stick to the fiscal deficit target and on hopes that the Reserve Bank of India will follow up with a rate cut soon. “With the kind of flows we are witnessing from FIIs, it looks like the 6,850 level was the near-term bottom and we are going to see some more highs in the coming time,” said Ashish Maheshwari, Director, Blue Ocean Strategic Advisors. Most experts have termed it a ‘relief rally’ but some others suggested that the domestic market is playing a catchup with their global counterparts. Global markets saw a surge in February after a dreadful January. The MSCI All Countries World Index (ACWI) has risen 8.1 per cent from its lows of February 5. “What is fuelling the rally in the last few weeks globally is expectation that central banks globally will act in coordination,” said Hemant Kanawala, Kotak Life Insurance. Hemant Kanawala, though, warns that the current rally can falter if the market’s expectation of a monetary easing does not materialise. “A number of meetings of the central banks are scheduled for this month amid expectations that most of them will either put monetary tightening on hold or announce further easing. Should that happen, this rally will continue. But if there is anything to the contrary, the rally can falter,” he said. Back home, investors have similar expectations from RBI, which is widely expected to cut interest rates, perhaps before the next month’s monetary policy meeting. RBI has cut rates by 125 basis points last year up until its December meeting.

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