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Volatility is here to stay: 5 wealth creating ideas for next 12 months

Saturday, March 5, 2016, 4:45
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NEW DELHI: The benchmark equity indices managed to close the week gone by with gains of over 6 per cent. The market moved up sharply after the Union Budget 2016 to log a best post-Budget week in 10 years. However, this is one thing which bothers analysts, the runup in the stocks was too much too fast. They want the market to consolidate and then move higher, but the way Sensex rallied in the last one week has fuelled apprehensions of profit booking at high levels in the coming weeks, which could take the index lower by 6 per cent, they said. “We believe volatility will continue to be the name of the game. The market has moved up sharply over the last one week or so, not because of the Union Budget. It had more to do with the global cues. But the global problems are not over yet,” said Vivek Mahajan, Head of Research, Aditya Birla Money. “In the near term, volatility will continue as far as the markets are concerned. We believe outflow is likely to continue and that will keep putting pressure on the market from time to time,” he said. Mahajan said the market can come down again, maybe towards 7,000-7,200 levels on the Nifty50, and any correction from the current level should be used as a buying opportunity. Volatility is something which investors have to deal with ahead of the US Federal Reserve monetary policy review on March 15-16. The US Federal Reserve might hold out this time, and then pause for the rest of the year given the fact that the macroeconomic data is showing strength. The relief rally seen in global markets in response to the stabilisation was largely on account of three factors that hit us hard at the beginning of the year. “The renminbi has stabilised in China and oil prices are off their lows. Most people think the US Fed may not be able to hike rate this year,” Philip Wee, Senior Currency Economist, DBS, said in an interview with ET Now. “In reality, if you look at the fourth quarter, what we have seen is that after the Chinese-led volatility, the Fed pause is what is needed to stabilise market sentiment for the Fed to hike rates. So that is really the irony in the market. I would say it is too early to think that the worse is over,” he said. We have collated a list of top five wealth-creating ideas with a minimum investment horizon of 12 months that different experts have suggested to their clients . CanFin Homes: CanFin Homes is a safe play in the housing finance company. The stock has done well and has been doing well for quite some time now. The stock has already rallied over 60 per cent in the last one year. “Going forward, we believe that that management is aiming to increase their current loan book from Rs 8,000 to Rs 30,000 crores by 2020. The loan book has been growing at 30 per cent year on year (YoY) with a good ROE and non-performing assets (NPA) is also under control,” Rahul Shah, MOFSL, said in an interview with ET Now. “I think there is a good upside from current levels. Can Fin Homes is one what we have been recommending to our clients right now,” Shah said. “We see 30% upside in the stock from the current level as well,” he added. HPCL: The stock rose by about 18 per cent in last one year, and going forward as well the stock can outperform as the marketing margins have been improving. “We believe that going forward the inventory losses are way behind, and we will not see such kind of things. I think the main shift will be to the focus on the volumes as well as on the marketing margins,” said Shah of MOSL. HPCL being the most sensitivity towards the oil prices can do much better going forward. The valuations are quite compelling with good 4.5% to 5% dividend yield. “I would buy HPCL, I think there is a good potential upside of at least 40% from the current levels,” he said. Bodal Chemicals: The chemicals and dye industry is doing extremely well if we look at numbers reported from various companies in this particular sector. And, this company is also not an exception. This is a company which makes dyes, dyes intermediaries and bulk chemicals and they have got eight plants which are based in Gujarat. They are quite competitive in terms of labour as well as electricity cost etc. “If we see Q3 numbers revenue went up by almost 16% odd EBITDA went up by 58% odd and they have improvises on EBITDA margin as well and added 500 plus bps which are again quite positive for the company,” said Ashish Maheshwari, Director, Blue Ocean Strategic Advisors. “The next trigger for the company is that they are setting up a plant in Gujarat for making linear alkaline benzene which is called LAB and which goes in soap and detergent industry which is short of supply in the Indian market,” he added. Valuation-wise, the stock is available at a quite attractive valuation. FY16 earnings estimate it is available at just 9 times earnings multiple so this is a good buy. “I am expecting a price target of 18, 12-months time,” Maheshwari said. ITD Cementation: ITD Cementation posted a strong set of Q4 CY15/CY15 figures, aided by its excellent execution of the JNP Terminal project. “We retain our Buy rating, with a price target of Rs 138 based on 15x CY17e PE, backed by its strong operational capabilities, healthy order backlog and L1 orders of Rs 30bn likely to be converted in Q1 CY16,” brokerage Anand Rathi said in a report. The revenue and net profit growth are likely to remain strong in FY17-18 owing to the strong order book and healthy inflows, with the larger projects beginning to contribute considerably to revenue. At the ruling price, the stock quotes at a PE of 10 times CY17e. Interglobe Aviation: Anand Rathi Institutional Research has initiated coverage on Indigo with a buy rating and a target price of Rs 1,200. A market leader with a one-third market share, a rare eight straight years of profit and favourable macroeconomic factors make a case for a premium valuation of Indigo. “A unique aircraft acquisition strategy, entry barriers to competition, sharper focus by the government and favourable crude oil prices make Indigo a good investment,” the brokerage said. (Views and recommendations given in this section are the analysts’ own and do not represent those of EconomicTimes.com. Please consult your financial adviser before taking any position in the stock/s mentioned.)

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