Wednesday, November 27, 2024

Pre Budget rally on cards! Axis Bank, Canara Bank top ideas for January 2023 series: Rupak De

Saturday, December 31, 2022, 6:46
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“The current weekly chart setups of the economic-centric sectors indicate the possibility of a decent pre-budget rally,” says Rupak De, Senior Technical Analyst at LKP Securities.In an interview with ETMarkets, Rupak said: “The current market sentiment, coupled with rollover data, points to a bullish January series, and traders may stay long till the Nifty remains above 17950,” Edited excerpts:Little bit of volatility but the bulls managed to put handsome gains on the board in the last week of 2022. What led to the price action?The Nifty remained volatile in the final week of the year, but the undertone remained bullish as the benchmark index recovered more than 60% of its previous week’s loss.BFSI, metal, and auto stocks helped the market recover during the week. Buying from domestic institutions and retail, combined with a lack of large ticket sales by FIIs in the last week of the year, resulted in a significant price recovery.Based on the December series expiry and rollover position for the January series – where do you see Nifty50 hovering in the new series?The December expiry ended with a significant rollover in Nifty as well as Bank Nifty futures, following a sluggish rollover in the three preceding monthly expiries.Besides, the headline index Nifty could reclaim the 50 EMA at expiry, whereas, Bank Nifty managed to float back above the 43000 mark, where call writers had significant positions.The current market sentiment, coupled with rollover data, points to a bullish January series, and traders may stay long till the Nifty remains above 17950.In terms of sectors, metals bounced back sharply in the week gone by – what led to the price action and will the momentum continue?The metal index shone the brightest among the sectoral indices, reversing three weeks of decline. A combination of stable domestic demand and slightly lower crude steel production in November 2022 sparked a fire in metal stocks.Besides, China, the biggest base metal consumer, is opening up after a stringent COVID-led lockdown and has been offering a big liquidity push that is likely to keep the metal price buoyant.Small & Midcap stocks also outperformed in the week gone by – can we say that the pre-budget rally especially in the economic-centric stocks has begun? How should one play this theme in January?Small and midcap stocks have also rebounded nicely this week, propelling the indices to a 4-6% weekly gain. The BFSI, infrastructure, and auto stocks rebounded smartly as the fear of recession subsided for a while.Going forward, the trend in cyclical stocks will likely remain positive as India’s economy remains strong. The net NPAs (non-performing assets) of scheduled commercial banks have dropped to a 10-year low of 1.3%, so the banking sector is likely to continue doing well over the medium to long term.Moreover, the current weekly chart setups of the economic-centric sectors indicate the possibility of a decent pre-budget rally. What are the expectations from the investors’ community from the finance minister for Budget 2023?The budget for 2023, which is going to be the last full-fledged budget before the 2024 general election, may come up with a rural demand push and a populist one.We anticipate a focus on agriculture and rural employment will be given in the upcoming budget. Apart from that, smart infrastructure, clean energy, and mobility will also remain among the major areas of focus.Moreover, the investor community may expect the abolition of the LTCG tax on the sale of equity shares. Apart from that, salary-class investors may want a higher Standard Deduction to avail themselves of more disposable income.What is fuelling the rally in RCF – up 30% in a week? And will the rally continue? What do technicals suggest?Healthy rabi crop coupled with government incentives and expectations provided a tailwind to RCF, as the stock witnessed a spectacular rally of ~27% in the last week of the year.The latest move was backed by decent volumes. Over the short to medium term, the stock may continue to move higher; on the higher end, a resistance zone is visible at 146–152. Again, above 152, the rally may extend towards 165. Your 3-5 trading ideas for the January series? (please mention target, stop loss)Here are some trading ideas:Axis Bank: Buy| LTP Rs 933.75| Target Rs 1000| Stop Loss Rs 900On the weekly chart, the index has formed a bullish harami pattern, suggesting a rise in optimism. Besides, the stock has been moving within a rising wedge pattern on the daily timeframe. The momentum indicator has entered a bullish crossover on the weekly timeframe. In the short term, the stock may rise to 1000 if it remains above 900.Canara Bank: Buy| LTP Rs 333.30| Target Rs 365| Stop Loss Rs 314On the weekly chart, the index has formed a bullish engulfing pattern, suggesting a rise in optimism. Besides, the stock has moved above the recent consolidation in the weekly timeframe. The momentum indicator has entered a bullish crossover. In the short term, the stock may rise to 360 if it remains above 314.REC Ltd: Buy| LTP Rs 116.50| Target Rs 132| Stop Loss Rs 110The stock has witnessed a strong breakout on the weekly and daily charts with a sharp surge in volumes. The index has surpassed its previous swing high and is trading well above its short-term moving average of 20 simple moving averages. The momentum indicator RSI is trading above the level of 60 which confirms the strength of the stock. The lower-end support is visible at 110 and the upside visible targets are 132.(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of Economic Times)

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