Monday, November 25, 2024

Weather currency storm,  hide in IT: Jagannadham Thunuguntla

Wednesday, May 30, 2018, 8:03
This news item was posted in Business category and has 0 Comments so far.

Jagannadham Thunuguntla, Senior VP and Head of Research, Centrum Broking, discusses FY19 earnings, listed e-commerce stocks and IT sector with ET Now.Edited excerpts: What do you make of the earnings season so far and what trend do you expect in FY19?The result season had started with great promise. There were a lot of positive results and it created the hope that probably there might be a good upward revision in the EPS estimates or in terms of analyst estimates but somewhere in the middle of the earnings season, things have started slowing down, meaning we may probably end up in a mixed kind of earnings outcome, maybe with a bit of positivity.The BFSI, especially PSU banks, continue to be the party spoilers in terms of earnings. In Q3 FY18, the BFSI sector was a clear underperformer vis-à-vis non BFSI segments. Probably Q4 FY18 will also show the same trend. But there were some green shoots in select NBFCs like Chola Finance and L&T Finance which showed reduction in NPAs. This gave rise to expectations that whatever money was exiting the PSU banks could go back into quality NBFCs. So, one has to be very selective as overall it is a mixed earnings season with a positive bias.Just Dial and Info Edge cannot be compared. Info Edge has a predictable business model while I don’t understand the Just Dial model. What are your thoughts on Info Edge? Is there merit in buying into Info Edge because of their investment in Zomato?Info Edge is a lot superior as it is a profit-making concern. It has naukri.com and other household names in its quiver which have strong recall value. Zomato is definitely evolving as one of the very few unicorns from India in the food spaceIt will become a huge opportunity for Info Edge to ride upon. And even if we apply the sum of the parts valuation, there is a lot of comfort. Whenever Info Edge wants to monetise some of these investments, they can sell piecemeal either Zomato or any other brands that they have. If anybody wants to bet on the listed e-commerce space in India, Info Edge will stand head and shoulders above the rest.In case of Just Dial, the discussion is about the cash on the books– Rs 1200 crore, which is about 30% of the market cap. That is one factor keeps the market interested in terms of buybacks etc. But barring these things, it is a forgotten brand. Just that some influential names like Nalanda Capital are invested in the stock and that keeps bringing the stock in investors radar.What is the call in terms of what the currency can do for exporters? Would you be a buyer in IT now?The currency and yields will remain in focus today. There has been clear carnage in Italy bonds for the last two days and the worst Italy bond day in the euro history probably will keep the emerging market bond yields in check. Also in terms of the currencies, there now would be a flight to safety to the US dollar and that can put emerging market currencies under strain. These factors will keep even the equity market sentiment down.For example, in last one month, currency as well as equity charts were inversely proportional. The day currency depreciated, the equity markets were also under pressure and we might be in one of those days. However, IT probably is one place one can look at and one has to be very selective. Some of the stocks have rallied a good 50% from their bottoms. So, the valuation comfort which was there earlier is slowly reducing but IT is one of the very few places one can hide in on weak currency days. It will be one such day today.

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