Monday, November 25, 2024

What poetic turns can be expected in Jaitley’s fifth Budget speech

Wednesday, January 31, 2018, 14:24
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Finance Minister, Arun Jaitley, India’s current finance minister carries on a long tradition of interspersing his prosaic Budget speech with fine poetry. A long line of finance ministers before him also used the levity that poetry provides to rationalise their hard and sometimes inevitable Budget trade-offs.The lawyer-turned-politician refrained from using his poetic chops in his first full-fledged Budget speech after the massive electoral win of 2014 mandate by the National Democratic Alliance government. Yet, in the subsequent three speeches he has made full use of the poetic devices to make his point.With this Budget, his fifth in a row, he joins an elite band of finance ministers who have had an opportunity to present the Budget over five times. Yashwant Sinha, P. Chidambaram and Pranab Mukherjee over terms split across decades have had the fortune of doing so in recent times.While previous Pranab Mukherjee was more pragmatic and prosaic in his budget presentations, P. Chidambaram used to quote his “muse” Saint Thiruvalluvar while presenting the Union Budget.Jaitley’s journey with poetry started with the 2015 Budget speech.”Kuch to phool khilaye humne, aur kuch phool khilane hai Mushkil yeh hai bagh me ab tak, kaante kai purane hai.” (We have grown some flowers, some more still need to be grownThe difficulty though is that till now there are many old thorns in the garden.)The couplet was seen as Jaitley’s dig at Opposition benches and especially political foes the Congress party, something that he had avoided in his maiden Budget speech in 2014. The previous United Progressive Alliance (UPA) government led by the Congress had left a rather unachievable fiscal deficit target for the incoming government.Jaitley, in 2014, had stuck to the deficit target put in by his predecessor when he presented the Budget in July, more than a quarter down in that financial year.Several economists had criticised him them for not coming clean with the real state of the economy that the NDA government had inherited. The couplet above seemed like Jaitley’s gracious comeback, even if almost eight months too late.Jaitley had concluded the same 2015 Budget with a fairly commonly used mantra from the Upanishads in a bid to articulate his government’s commitment towards the poor.”Om Sarve Bhavantu Sukhinah, Sarve Santu Nir-Aamayaah, Sarve Bhadraanni Pashyantu Maa Kashcid-Duhkha-Bhaag-Bhavet, Om Shaantih Shaantih Shaantih”(Om! May All Be Happy, May All Be Free From Illness, May All See What is Beneficial, May No One Suffer)While presenting the 2016-17 Budget, Jaitley again took the refuge of poetry to score political brownie points with the Opposition.Kashti chalane walon ne jab haar ke di patwaar hameinLeher-lehar toofan mile aur mauj-mauj manjhdar hameinPhir bhi dikhaya hai hamne aur phir ye dikha denge sabkoIn haalaat me aata hai, dariya karna paar haemin(When the weary helmsmen at boat handed over charge to us,We found storms on every wave,In spite of the difficulties, we have shown and will show againThat we know how to cross the river in such circumstances)This Budget speech ended with a reference to champions and their ilk, perhaps as a reference to the determination of the government to stick to its ambitious targets. “Champions are made from something they have deep inside of them – a desire, a dream, a vision”.That year, however, translated into a political stalemate as the government was unable to gather enough legislative support for the bill introducing the Goods and Services Tax (GST).And more than halfway through the year, the NDA government pushed through one of the most forceful policy interventions by way of demonetisation and remonetisation of high value currency notes over a roughly two month period. The period of economic disruption, however, continued for longer. And eventually led to a policy push towards a cashless economy.So when Arun Jaitley, rose to present the 2017-18 Union Budget in February 2017, the finance minister had much to talk about — economic reforms, demonetisation and the GST roll out. The government had been accused of cruelly shaving off a few percentage points off the economic growth for uncertain future gains.The government in the midst of a massive economic slowdown had no data to back its arguments for demonetisation, but the finance minister tried valiantly.”Iss mod pe ghabra ke na tham jaiye aapJo baat nayi hai usse apnaiye aapDarte hain nayi raah pe kyun chalne seHum aage-aage chalte hain, peeche aaiye aap”(At this juncture, don’t get nervous and stopAdopt what is newWhy are you afraid of walking the new path?Follow us, we will lead the way)Jaitley again turned poet, in the middle of the budget speech when he tried highlighting his government’s crackdown on black money.Nayi duniya hai, naya daur hai, nayi hai umang,Kuch the pahle se tariqe, to kuch hain aaj ke rang-dhanghRaushni aake jo andheroon se takdai hai,Kaale dhan ko bhi badalna pada aaj apna rang.(It’s a new world, a new era with new aspirationsSome norms we carry from the past, some are current day trendsWhen light has collided with darknessBlack money too had change its colour today)The finance minister ended his speech last year on an optimistic and motivational note. “When my aim is right, when my goal is in sight, the winds favour me and I fly”.Just how high the NDA government ends up flying will be determined in the following months. The Goods and Services Tax (GST) roll-out close on the heels of demonetisation has caused disruption with an extremely difficult transition to the new system. That had an impact on collections too.However, there seems to be glimmer of hope as the GST collections showed a trend towards stabilisation in the latest data.The Finance Minister has promised a fresh look at the GST rate structure on the back of this stabilisation. This also provides the FM with some fiscal headroom for alleviating measures and social sector schemes.Therefore, whether Jaitley uses poetry or not, this Budget speech will be keenly watched as it sets the tone for the next 18 months or so.

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